Different question, different answer?

Very soon the results will be released from the 2016 Census. One of the usual talking points is the shrinking of the number of Australians who identify with Christianity.

But this time the question has changed. Or more precisely, the answers choice has changed.

As "No religion" has become more popular over the years, the Census decided to move it to the top of the list of options.

How much will this affect the results? What will people tick? In particular the people who were raised in a Christian denomination but have little to do with it these days.

In the past they may have ticked 'Anglican' for example and moved on to the next question, without reading down the list to find "No religion". Now it's at the top of the list, how many will now tick that option instead?

I guess what I'm asking is how much of the change this time will be due to people who have not changed their views but just ticked a more convenient box. And how much will be due to people who have actually left religion?

It will be interesting to see the results.

The year the last church closes

Even as our country grows in population the church manages to shrink. That's not new news. But how quickly is this happening?

I've graphed the percent of Australians who put my denomination as their religion in the census.

It's a pretty clear trend.

The way things are headed (the dotted line) the year my denomination ceases will be 2040. Maybe 2041.

Why did I do this?
Partially just plain curiosity. But mostly I felt that in general church is quite complacent about this. I think we've sensed that decline has been happening for some time and that it's nothing to worry about.

But these numbers tell a different story. Things are looking very bleak very soon. It really is about time we start thinking of different ways to be church, because whatever we're doing no is clearly not connecting with people.

For too long we blame the people for disengaging, rather than ourselves for being so disengaging.